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A political morality play is being acted out on the streets of Bangkok as Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's prime minister, battles to keep his job in the teeth of escalating protests by an ad hoc alliance of opposition parties, students, trade unions and celibate Buddhist vegetarians pledged to the simple life.
Mr Thaksin's ethical troubles began in earnest in January when his family sold its 49% stake in Shin Corp, the telecoms and airline conglomerate he founded. The fact that his relatives avoided tax on the $1.8bn (£1.03bn) deal, coupled with claims of insider dealing and concern over foreign control of key national assets, brought public unease about Mr Thaksin's style of governance to a head.
The prime minister, criticised in the past for his high-handed manner and alleged cronyism, has been on the defensive ever since. After initially trying to weather the storm, he promised to implement long-sought constitutional reforms, dissolved parliament and called a snap general election for April 2.
But far from being placated, the anti-Thaksin forces, deriding him as a "square-headed tyrant", are mounting almost daily street protests, among the largest seen since military rule was overthrown in 1992. They demand his immediate resignation. And their movement is gathering strength.
A spokesman for Thailand's powerful national police, General Archirawit Suphanaphesat, added to Mr Thaksin's woes yesterday. He said he had personally advised him to step down - and urged him "not to resume the premiership" even if his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party won again next month.
Business leaders said, meanwhile, that they would meet next week to decide their stance. Their desertion could tip the balance against Mr Thaksin who has styled himself the country's CEO and is credited with boosting economic growth. The crisis has brought falls in share prices and delayed negotiations on a free trade agreement with the US.
So far Mr Thaksin has remained unmoved. "I will never, ever bow to mob rule," he said yesterday. "A huge majority of people want me to carry on ... If I resign it would mean I am undermining the democratic system." To him, he says, the protesters, who include Buddhist ascetics known as the Dharma Army, are just idiots.
Yet if he stays in office, Thailand's fledgling multiparty democracy that emerged after decades of military domination of the political process could be at even greater risk. Opposition parties insist they will boycott the April election. And if the confrontation turns violent, there are fears that the army could step in again.
"The situation is made even more precarious with the threat of a military coup even if there are assurances otherwise," an analysis by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said.
Chaiwat Satha-anan of Thammasat University told The Nation newspaper this week: "An impasse can lead to violence. It's dangerous when people think society no longer has an option."
A number of factors have contributed to Mr Thaksin's plight, said Simon Tay of the Singapore institute. "Many reformers and civil society groups feel Thaksin is undermining democratic institutions and free media ... They suspect he is moving towards a new form of autocracy backed not by military force but by influence, money and control of the media."
Perceptions of corruption at the top had also alienated urban middle-class voters. In addition, Mr Thaksin's attempt to suppress the Muslim insurgency in the south by giving additional powers to the army and police and imposing a state of emergency had led to an increase in violence.
But viewing Thailand's turmoil simply in terms of Philippines-style "people power" could be a mistake. Mr Thaksin won re-election by a landslide only last year. And his downfall is by no means inevitable, some commentators say.
The pressures on a conservative, majority Buddhist society arising from free market capitalism and western-style "mall culture" may be to blame - rather than Mr Thaksin - for a growing sense of loss of moral direction. And the largely favourable view of the prime minister in poor rural areas that have benefited from his rule is more indicative of a widening gulf with the urban intelligentsia than of nationwide revolt.
"While media and democratic freedoms matter to some, many more Thais focus on jobs and economic growth," Mr Tay said. "The different [opposition] groups are not united ... There seems no clear alternative to Thaksin."
If it came to a crunch, Mr Tay said, the attitude of Thailand's respected constitutional monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, could decide the issue.
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